Provides updated data characterizing the influence of state rebates and the federal tax credit on California EV consumers rebated for calendar-year 2021 purchases/leases:

CVRP rebate influence:

  • Rebate Importance: enabler of EV acquisition for 87% of rebate recipients overall (up from 82% in 2020) and for 93% of Increased Rebate recipients specifically.
  • Rebate Essentiality: decreased in 2020, primarily for Tesla consumers, followed by decreases for non-Tesla in 2021.
    • 32% for Teslas, but 38% for PHEVs, 43% for non-Tesla BEVs, 51% for Increased Rebate recipients.
  • Attractive offerings (SUVs, long-range BEVs, Teslas) had lower Rebate Essentiality.
  • Rebate influence decreases as MSRP increases for Standard Rebates.
    • Evidence weak for MSRP caps below $60k for Increased Rebates.
  • Process described for converting results into a “Free Rider Abatement Curve” to rank-order program-design recommendations.

Federal-tax-credit (FTC) influence:

  • Frequency of reporting FTC “extremely important” in making purchase/lease possible:
    • Relatively steady over time
    • Higher for purchases than leases, except for vehicles >$40k model-minimum MSRP
    • Counterintuitively similar for Standard and Increased Rebate Recipients
  • Essentiality of FTC had similar patterns to Extreme Importance, except counterintuitively higher for Standard Rebate Recipients.
  • Counterintuitive findings likely due to Increased Rebate recipients not having enough tax liability to benefit from FTC.