This report updates estimates of the greenhouse gas (GHG) emission impacts and cost-effectiveness of California’s Clean Vehicle Rebate Project using 2022 program data and inputs.

Fuel-cycle GHG emission reductions are analyzed using an evolving methodology that is increasingly case-specific. This includes new supplementary analyses that 1) further tailor the characterization of the baseline from which EV emissions are compared using survey data on counterfactual behaviors, and 2) explore a methodical process of considering program design alternatives to minimize free-ridership and improve cost-effectiveness.

Compared to new gasoline vehicles, we estimate GHG reductions from 35,508 rebated EVs total 828,000 metric tons of carbon-dioxide-equivalent emissions over 100,000-miles of driving. In total, approximately 37% of the 2022 reductions are associated with “Rebate-Essential” participants, who were the most highly influenced by the rebate to purchase/lease. Approximately 50% of reductions from recipients of CVRP’s Increased Rebate for Low-/Moderate-Income households were Rebate Essential. Cost-effectiveness of Rebate-Essential reductions average $269 and $391 per metric ton of GHGs abated for Standard and Increased Rebates, respectively.

Estimating GHG reductions from BEVs and PHEVs using counterfactual survey data (characterizing what participants would have otherwise done in absence of the rebate) increases the costs of Rebate-Essential GHG reductions to $505 and $628 per ton of GHG reductions for Standard Rebate BEVs and Increased Rebate BEVs, respectively. Costs increase as a result of many participants stating that, in absence of the rebate, they would have alternatively been driving cleaner vehicles than those represented by the new gasoline vehicle baseline.